{"id":20111,"date":"2023-08-30T14:42:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-30T14:42:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/?p=20111"},"modified":"2023-08-30T10:43:01","modified_gmt":"2023-08-30T14:43:01","slug":"bitcoin-etf-launch-probabilities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/bitcoin-etf-launch-probabilities\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin ETF Launch Probabilities"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Eric Balchunas<\/a><\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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NEW: \u2066\u202a @JSeyff <\/span>\u202c\u2069<\/a> & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w “very little wiggle room” via \u2066\u202a\u202c<\/a>@NYCStein<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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8\/30\/23, 9:08 AM<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w “very little wiggle room” via @NYCStein<\/p>\n

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Eric Balchunas<\/a><\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Beyond the legal loss, there is also the PR loss (which matters bc it sets narratives, changes minds). And this got covered far and wide in mainstream media incl NYT, WSJ, CNN, AP, ABC & on and on. We think the legal and PR loss will combine to make denial politically untenable. pic.twitter.com\/Uarh5CszXC<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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8\/30\/23, 9:15 AM<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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WordPress\u2019d <\/span>from my personal iPhone, <\/span>650-283-8008<\/span>, number that Steve Jobs texted me on<\/span><\/div>\n
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    Eric Balchunas \u2066\u202a@EricBalchunas\u202c\u2069 NEW: \u2066\u202a @JSeyff \u202c\u2069 & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w “very little wiggle room” via […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20112,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20111\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}