{"id":31677,"date":"2025-01-27T12:35:07","date_gmt":"2025-01-27T12:35:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/?p=31677"},"modified":"2025-01-27T08:35:33","modified_gmt":"2025-01-27T12:35:33","slug":"duck-bankruptcy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/duck-bankruptcy\/","title":{"rendered":"Duck Bankruptcy"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"postie-post\">\n<div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">Default cockroach mode via Pad Thai Profitability&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/larrychiang\/status\/1869746442933244216?s=43&amp;t=NipKy21fekvPoZS5MA8-lQ\"><\/p>\n<table cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" border=\"0\" style=\"border:1px solid #ccd6dd; border-radius: 12px;\" width=\"500\" bgcolor=\"#ffffff\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px;\" height=\"12\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"18\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; min-width: 18px;\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td>\n<table cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" border=\"0\" width=\"464\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td width=\"48\" valign=\"top\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/larrychiang?s=43\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/profile_images\/1388307931125460994\/KWn5HNMY_normal.jpg\" style=\"border-radius: 50%; padding: 0px;\" height=\"48\" width=\"48\" data-unique-identifier=\"\"><\/a><\/td>\n<td width=\"8\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; min-width:8px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ea.twimg.com\/email\/self_serve\/media\/spacer.png\" width=\"8\" data-unique-identifier=\"\"><\/td>\n<td valign=\"middle\" width=\"388\" style=\"min-width: 388px;\">\n<table cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" border=\"0\" align=\"left\" width=\"388\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" width=\"388\"><b><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/larrychiang?s=43\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, san-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; color: #292c2f; text-decoration: none;\">Larry Chiang, 650-283-8008<\/a><\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/larrychiang?s=43\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, san-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none; color: #7e8c98;\">\u2066\u202a@LarryChiang\u202c\u2069<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"20\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ea.twimg.com\/email\/self_serve\/media\/logo_twitter-1497383721365.png\" height=\"20\" width=\"24\" data-unique-identifier=\"\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"9\" colspan=\"4\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height:0px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ea.twimg.com\/self_serve\/media\/spacer_464x1-1582829598167.png\" width=\"464\" height=\"1\" data-unique-identifier=\"\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, san-serif;color: #292c2f; font-size: 18px; line-height: 24px; text-decoration: none;\">Heard of PG\u2019s (Paul Grahams)<br \/>&#x2705; default alive <br \/>&#x2705; default dead?<\/p>\n<p>Well there is default algorithm sheep or coding our own brains &#8211; Yes, our brains were broken by smartphones <br \/>&#x2705; black and white screens are stupid <br \/>&#x2705; using a dumb phone is retarded too<\/p>\n<p>What Tristan Harris learned <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sX6ayoauOd\"><span>pic.x.com\/sX6ayoauOd<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"3\" colspan=\"4\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height:0px;\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/larrychiang\/status\/1869746442933244216?s=43&amp;t=NipKy21fekvPoZS5MA8-lQ\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, san-serif;color: #667785; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration:none;\">12\/19\/24, 8:07\u202fAM<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<td width=\"18\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; min-width: 18px;\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px;\" height=\"12\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/a><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<div dir=\"ltr\">Recent developments in commercial building defaults have highlighted significant stress within the commercial real estate sector.&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">Bullet Pointing\u2026&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">-1- Sentiment on Social Media<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">Tweets have highlighted the distress in commercial real estate, with mentions of significant amounts of debt being considered distressed and a sharp rise in delinquency rates on commercial property loans, particularly for office buildings<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">-2- **Impact on Banks<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">The downturn in commercial real estate could lead to bankruptcy for numerous regional banks in the U.S., with estimates suggesting up to 385 American banks might face significant challenges. This is largely due to the high exposure of these banks to commercial real estate loans, where defaults are increasing due to high interest rates and declining property values.[](<a href=\"https:\/\/www.allsides.com\/news\/2023-12-19-1545\/banking-and-finance-commercial-real-estate-woes-are-bankruptcy-alarm-us\">www.allsides.com\/news\/2023-12-19-1545\/banking-and-finance-commercial-real-estate-woes-are-bankruptcy-alarm-us<\/a>)<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">-3- **Bankruptcy Filings**<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">Commercial Chapter 4 and #Ch11 bankruptcy filings have seen a significant increase, with filings up by 72% in 2023 compared to the previous year, reflecting economic headwinds like elevated interest rates and inflation. This trend is expected to continue into 2024, driven by factors such as the runoff of pandemic-era financial supports and tougher lending standards.<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">-4- Sector-Specific Challenges<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">The office sector is particularly vulnerable, with office occupancy rates not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels soon. This has led to a surge in loan delinquencies, with defaults on office loans more than doubling. There&#8217;s also a trend of commercial real estate owners handing back keys to properties, especially in the office space segment, to avoid formal bankruptcy proceedings.<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">-5- Adaptation and Restructuring<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">In response to these challenges, there&#8217;s a move towards creative restructuring, such as converting office spaces for alternative uses like residential or wellness centers. However, these transitions require significant capital, which is harder to secure with high interest rates. Banks are also trying to mitigate losses through loan modifications and extensions<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<div dir=\"ltr\">-6- Rising Defaults and Debt Maturities<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">There&#8217;s been a notable increase in the risk of default on commercial real estate loans, with nearly $1.5 trillion in debt due by the end of 2025. This situation is exacerbated by falling property valuations, particularly in the office and retail sectors, which are down by as much as 40% in some areas. Analysts from Morgan Stanley have pointed out that this debt maturity wall is front-loaded, increasing associated risks.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/larrychiang\/status\/1869735773454626889?s=43&amp;t=NipKy21fekvPoZS5MA8-lQ\"><\/p>\n<table cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" border=\"0\" width=\"500\" bgcolor=\"#ffffff\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(204, 214, 221); border-radius: 12px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\" height=\"12\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px;\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"18\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; min-width: 18px;\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td>\n<table cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" border=\"0\" width=\"464\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td width=\"48\" valign=\"top\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/larrychiang?s=43\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/KWn5HNMY_normal-9.jpg\" height=\"48\" width=\"48\" style=\"border-radius: 50%; padding: 0px;\" alt=\"KWn5HNMY_normal.jpg\"><\/a><\/td>\n<td width=\"8\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; min-width: 8px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ea.twimg.com\/email\/self_serve\/media\/spacer.png\" width=\"8\" data-unique-identifier=\"\"><\/td>\n<td valign=\"middle\" width=\"388\" style=\"min-width: 388px;\">\n<table cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" border=\"0\" align=\"left\" width=\"388\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" width=\"388\"><b><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/larrychiang?s=43\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, san-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; color: rgb(41, 44, 47); text-decoration: none;\">Larry Chiang, 650-283-8008<\/a><\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/larrychiang?s=43\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, san-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(126, 140, 152);\">\u2066\u202a@LarryChiang\u202c\u2069<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\" width=\"20\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ea.twimg.com\/email\/self_serve\/media\/logo_twitter-1497383721365.png\" height=\"20\" width=\"24\" data-unique-identifier=\"\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"9\" colspan=\"4\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ea.twimg.com\/self_serve\/media\/spacer_464x1-1582829598167.png\" width=\"464\" height=\"1\" data-unique-identifier=\"\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, san-serif; color: rgb(41, 44, 47); font-size: 18px; line-height: 24px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hbpcv4Ch57\">x.com\/i\/spaces\/1gqxv\u2026<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"3\" colspan=\"4\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px;\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/larrychiang\/status\/1869735773454626889?s=43&amp;t=NipKy21fekvPoZS5MA8-lQ\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, san-serif; color: rgb(102, 119, 133); font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;\">12\/19\/24, 7:25\u202fAM<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<td width=\"18\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; min-width: 18px;\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\" height=\"12\" style=\"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px;\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/a><\/div>\n<p><br id=\"lineBreakAtBeginningOfSignature\"><\/p>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\">WordPressed&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\">from my personal iPhone,&nbsp;<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\">650-283-8008<\/span><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\">, number that&nbsp;Steve Jobs texted me on<\/span><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"image0.png\" src=\"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image0-16.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"image1.png\" src=\"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image1-9.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"image2.png\" src=\"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image2-14.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"image3.png\" src=\"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image3-10.png\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">These bankruptcy developments underscore a complex scenario for commercial real estate, with potential ripple effects on the broader economy, particularly regarding financial institutions&#8217; fiscal health and lending practices.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<div><font color=\"#000000\"><span style=\"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\">https:\/\/www.YouTube.com\/watch?v=ejeIz4EhoJ0<\/span><\/font><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-size: 13pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Default cockroach mode via Pad Thai Profitability&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Larry Chiang, 650-283-8008 \u2066\u202a@LarryChiang\u202c\u2069 Heard of PG\u2019s (Paul Grahams)&#x2705; default alive &#x2705; default dead? Well there is default algorithm sheep or coding our own brains &#8211; Yes, our brains were broken by smartphones &#x2705; black and white screens are stupid &#x2705; using a dumb phone is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31678,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31677\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}