{"id":36300,"date":"2025-10-02T16:54:18","date_gmt":"2025-10-02T16:54:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/?p=36300"},"modified":"2025-10-02T12:54:45","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T16:54:45","slug":"carvanas-carmax-and-other-subprime-loan-pools-exhibit-spiked-30-day-delinquencies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/carvanas-carmax-and-other-subprime-loan-pools-exhibit-spiked-30-day-delinquencies\/","title":{"rendered":"Carvana’s CarMax and Other Subprime Loan Pools Exhibit Spiked 30+ Day Delinquencies"},"content":{"rendered":"
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– CarMax and Carvana’s 2024 loan pools exhibit 30+ day delinquencies at 4.5% and higher, 2-3 times prime benchmarks despite average borrower FICO scores of 714 and 695, signaling affordability strains beyond credit quality.<\/div>\n
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– Lenders extend payments to curb repossessions, holding repo rates below 0.2% while modifications rise to 0.5%, delaying vehicle returns and constricting used car wholesale supply amid low off-lease volumes.<\/div>\n
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– Tightened supply intensifies auction competition, compelling dealers to adopt direct sourcing strategies like instant offers and rapid reconditioning to sustain inventory and margins.<\/div>\n
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CarMax and Carvana\u2019s loan troubles are reshaping the used car market:<\/div>\n
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Both groups\u2019 2024 loan pools are running hot, posting delinquencies 2\u20133x higher than prime auto benchmarks.<\/div>\n
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And that\u2019s unusual, because their average borrower scores (CarMax ~714, Carvana ~695) should be tracking much closer to prime.<\/div>\n
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Instead, delinquencies are climbing fast.<\/div>\n
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CarMax\u2019s pool is already at 4.5% 30-day delinquencies, while Carvana\u2019s heavier subprime mix is deteriorating even faster.<\/div>\n
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Repos, though, remain low.<\/div>\n
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Because lenders are increasingly stacking on payment extensions to keep loans alive, which means fewer cars cycling back into the lanes.<\/div>\n
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Add in light off-lease volume and slower trade-ins, and wholesale supply is tightening just as competition at auction heats up.<\/div>\n
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My take: Auctions are a great supplement, but they should not be your sole lifeline. Dealers who own their sourcing (instant offers, trade locks, recon to market in 72 hours) are better suited to maintain control right now.<\/div>\n
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Read the full Market Pulse, together with @Experian_Auto : carguymedia.com\/4nq5YbY<\/div>\n
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(Data source: Finsight Auto ABS Loan Level Data \/ Fitch Ratings Auto ABS Data for Prime Index)<\/div>\n

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Car Dealership Guy<\/a><\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u2066\u202a@GuyDealership\u202c\u2069<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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CarMax and Carvana\u2019s loan troubles are reshaping the used car market:<\/p>\n

Both groups\u2019 2024 loan pools are running hot, posting delinquencies 2\u20133x higher than prime auto benchmarks.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s unusual, because their average borrower scores (CarMax ~714, Carvana ~695) should be<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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10\/2\/25, 9:14\u202fAM<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Chapter 1 to Chapter 14\u2019s an \u201cEaster Egg\u201d at <\/span>#ch1 to #ch14. Including #ch2 which\u2019s chapter 2 at my house in Napa California<\/span><\/div>\n

http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ejeIz4EhoJ0<\/span><\/p>\n


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On 09-09-39, “What They Will NEVER Teach You at Stanford Business School” debuts at 300 w 44th St at New York Fashion Week’s front row
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=QXIaNZi3mHQ<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

What A Super Model Can Teach a Harvard MBA About Credit www.slideshare.net\/larrychiang\/what-a-super-model-can-teach-a-harvard-mba-about-credit<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

American Express hosts me mentoring you about FICO scores at New York Fashion Week
t.co\/inxTmZAj<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

My video boils down 20,000 hours and moves you to the right on the entrepreneur bell curve 
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eudADPfTWiE<\/span>
<\/span>***********<\/span><\/div>\n

Steve Jobs Texted me on 650-283-8008 in the same way that Mr Jobs called Bill Hewlett <\/span>https:\/\/x.com\/superSaiyanSkai\/status\/1941392367304761636\/video\/1<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n

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<\/span><\/div>\n
Larry Chiang<\/span><\/div>\n
Fund of Founders<\/div>\n
Founding Stanford EIR<\/div>\n
@duck9 alum, Deeply Understood Capital Credit Chinese Knowledge 9<\/div>\n
Solo Founder Uber API<\/div>\n
650-566-9600 Office<\/div>\n
650-566-9696 Direct<\/div>\n
Cell: 415-720-8500 <\/div>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

650-283-8008 (cell)<\/span><\/div>\n

<\/span><\/div>\n
Editor of the widely syndicated “What They Don’t Teach at School”
whattheydontteachyouatstanfordbusinessschool.com\/blog<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

CNN Video Channel: ireport.cnn.com\/people\/larrychiang<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Read my last 10 X posts at www.X.com\/LarryChiang<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Author of #WTDTYASBS a NY Times Bestseller released 09-09-09 at #NYFW on a runway under the tents
whattheydontteachyouatstanfordbusinessschool.com\/blog\/?s=Ny+times+bestseller<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

www.fastcompany.com\/embed\/c0d4562ea2049<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

52 Cards. Two Jokers. What They DO Teach You at Stanford Engineering
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=vDBY0GkI3-g<\/span><\/p>\n

Emergency swings and cutting deals as an 9 year old
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OFGY7v9C4G0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hunter Pence shared thoughts before winning WORLD SERIES’ Game #7
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=usu0luYy9pw<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

– CarMax and Carvana’s 2024 loan pools exhibit 30+ day delinquencies at 4.5% and higher, 2-3 times prime benchmarks despite average borrower FICO scores of 714 and 695, signaling affordability strains beyond credit quality. – Lenders extend payments to curb repossessions, holding repo rates below 0.2% while modifications rise to 0.5%, delaying vehicle returns and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36300"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36300\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}