{"id":37180,"date":"2025-12-17T16:59:44","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T16:59:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/?p=37180"},"modified":"2025-12-17T12:59:50","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T16:59:50","slug":"zero-percent-chance-of-being-correct","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/zero-percent-chance-of-being-correct\/","title":{"rendered":"Zero Percent Chance of Being Correct"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nic Cruz Patane<\/a><\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Lyft CEO thinks there is \u2018zero likelihood\u2019 self-driving cars will replace human drivers in any reasonable timeframe.<\/p>\n

That will be the case for years and years and years to come,\u201d he said. The car manufacturers aren\u2019t entirely ready. The technology isn\u2019t entirely ready for fog or pic.x.com\/NgJHVrnkKS<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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12\/16\/25, 10:21\u202fAM<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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– Lyft CEO David Risher, in a November 2025 Fortune interview, argued self-driving cars won’t replace human drivers soon due to tech limitations in adverse weather, high costs of $250,000\u2013$300,000 per vehicle, regulatory hurdles, and low consumer demand, predicting under 10% of Lyft’s rides from AVs by 2030.<\/div>\n
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Zero Percent Chance of Being Correct <\/div>\n
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– Elon Musk’s “lol” reply highlights Tesla’s contrasting push via Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, which equips affordable vehicles like the Model 3 for $40,000 and saw v14 updates in December 2025 improving smoothness and handling complex scenarios.<\/div>\n
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– The post, from Tesla-focused analyst Nic Cruz Patane, sparks replies mocking Risher’s stance as outdated, amid data showing Tesla FSD v14 reducing interventions to under 3 per 780 miles in real-world tests.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Larry Chiang<\/span><\/div>\n
Fund of Founders<\/div>\n
Founding Stanford EIR<\/div>\n
@duck9 alum, Deeply Understood Capital Credit Chinese Knowledge 9<\/div>\n
Solo Founder Uber API<\/div>\n
650-566-9600 Office<\/div>\n
650-566-9696 Direct<\/div>\n
Cell: 415-720-8500 <\/div>\n

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650-283-8008 (cell)<\/span><\/div>\n

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Editor of the widely syndicated “What They Don’t Teach at School”
whattheydontteachyouatstanfordbusinessschool.com\/blog<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

CNN Video Channel: ireport.cnn.com\/people\/larrychiang<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Read my last 10 X posts at www.X.com\/LarryChiang<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Author of #WTDTYASBS a NY Times Bestseller released 09-09-09 at #NYFW on a runway under the tents
whattheydontteachyouatstanfordbusinessschool.com\/blog\/?s=Ny+times+bestseller<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

www.fastcompany.com\/embed\/c0d4562ea2049<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

52 Cards. Two Jokers. What They DO Teach You at Stanford Engineering
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=vDBY0GkI3-g<\/span><\/p>\n

Emergency swings and cutting deals as an 9 year old
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OFGY7v9C4G0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hunter Pence shared thoughts before winning WORLD SERIES’ Game #7
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=usu0luYy9pw<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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    Nic Cruz Patane \u2066\u202a@niccruzpatane\u202c\u2069 Lyft CEO thinks there is \u2018zero likelihood\u2019 self-driving cars will replace human drivers in any reasonable timeframe. That will be the case for years and years and years to come,\u201d he said. The car manufacturers aren\u2019t entirely ready. The technology isn\u2019t entirely ready for fog or pic.x.com\/NgJHVrnkKS   12\/16\/25, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37181,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37180"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37180\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}