{"id":38053,"date":"2026-03-30T15:30:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T15:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/?p=38053"},"modified":"2026-03-30T11:30:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T15:30:52","slug":"bears-thesis-is-dead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/bears-thesis-is-dead\/","title":{"rendered":"Bears Thesis Is Dead"},"content":{"rendered":"
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– Adam Livingston’s post dismisses bearish claims of Bitcoin’s “broken structure” after a 50% drawdown to ~$66,000, using a power-law model to show the price is 47% below its long-term trend, with rising R\u00b2 accuracy indicating maturing adoption rather than collapse.<\/div>\n
– The embedded video introduces log-periodic oscillations around this trend, framing volatility as inherent mean-reversion cycles; it projects Bitcoin’s next peak at $508,000 by mid-2028, suggesting the 2022-2026 period was a prolonged bear market primed for reversion.<\/div>\n
– Applying the model to MicroStrategy (MSTR), Livingston estimates $5,000 per share by 2036 from current holdings alone\u2014yielding ~0.0022 BTC exposure per share after senior claims\u2014at a $2.24 million Bitcoin price, capturing just 0.19% of a $47 trillion network value against global wealth.<\/div>\n
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🔥THE BITCOIN BEARS ARE COMPLETELY COOKED + MSTR TO $5,000?!?🔥<\/div>\n
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Bitcoin dumps 50 percent and suddenly every economically illiterate ghoul with a WiFi signal starts acting like they just solved the markets.<\/div>\n
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\u201cIt\u2019s over.\u201d<\/div>\n
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\u201cThe structure is broken.\u201d<\/div>\n
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\u201cThe bubble finally popped.\u201d<\/div>\n
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Fantastic. Incredible work, Sherlock. <\/div>\n
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You saw a volatile asset be volatile and concluded that fifteen years of price history, adoption, market structure, and cyclical mean reversion were all just a shared hallucination.<\/div>\n
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In this video, I break down a Bitcoin model that says the bears may be COMPLETELY COOKED, and why it means $5,000 MSTR even if Saylor never buys another Bitcoin:\"image1.jpeg\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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https:\/\/x.com\/adambliv\/status\/2038323399966028278?s=43<\/a><\/div>\n


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Chapter 1 to Chapter 14\u2019s an \u201cEaster Egg\u201d at <\/span>#ch1 to #ch14. Including #ch2 which\u2019s chapter 2 at my house in Napa California<\/span><\/div>\n
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What They Will NEVER Teach You at Stanford Business School<\/font><\/a><\/div>\n
youtube.com<\/font><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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On 09-09-39, “What They Will NEVER Teach You at Stanford Business School” debuts at 300 w 44th St at New York Fashion Week’s front row
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=QXIaNZi3mHQ<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

What A Super Model Can Teach a Harvard MBA About Credit www.slideshare.net\/larrychiang\/what-a-super-model-can-teach-a-harvard-mba-about-credit<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

American Express hosts me mentoring you about FICO scores at New York Fashion Week
t.co\/inxTmZAj<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

My video boils down 20,000 hours and moves you to the right on the entrepreneur bell curve 
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eudADPfTWiE<\/span>
<\/span>***********<\/span><\/div>\n

Steve Jobs Texted me on 650-283-8008 in the same way that Mr Jobs called Bill Hewlett <\/span>https:\/\/x.com\/superSaiyanSkai\/status\/1941392367304761636\/video\/1<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n

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<\/span><\/div>\n
Larry Chiang<\/span><\/div>\n
Fund of Founders<\/div>\n
Founding Stanford EIR<\/div>\n
@duck9 alum, Deeply Understood Capital Credit Chinese Knowledge 9<\/div>\n
Solo Founder Uber API<\/div>\n
650-566-9600 Office<\/div>\n
650-566-9696 Direct<\/div>\n
Cell: 415-720-8500 <\/div>\n

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650-283-8008 (cell)<\/span><\/div>\n

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Editor of the widely syndicated “What They Don’t Teach at School”
whattheydontteachyouatstanfordbusinessschool.com\/blog<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

CNN Video Channel: ireport.cnn.com\/people\/larrychiang<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Read my last 10 X posts at www.X.com\/LarryChiang<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Author of #WTDTYASBS a NY Times Bestseller released 09-09-09 at #NYFW on a runway under the tents
whattheydontteachyouatstanfordbusinessschool.com\/blog\/?s=Ny+times+bestseller<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

www.fastcompany.com\/embed\/c0d4562ea2049<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

52 Cards. Two Jokers. What They DO Teach You at Stanford Engineering
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=vDBY0GkI3-g<\/span><\/p>\n

Emergency swings and cutting deals as an 9 year old
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OFGY7v9C4G0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hunter Pence shared thoughts before winning WORLD SERIES’ Game #7
http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=usu0luYy9pw<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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– Adam Livingston’s post dismisses bearish claims of Bitcoin’s “broken structure” after a 50% drawdown to ~$66,000, using a power-law model to show the price is 47% below its long-term trend, with rising R\u00b2 accuracy indicating maturing adoption rather than collapse. – The embedded video introduces log-periodic oscillations around this trend, framing volatility as inherent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38054,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38053\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}