{"id":39384,"date":"2026-10-22T20:16:06","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T20:16:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/?p=39384"},"modified":"2026-10-22T16:16:20","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T20:16:20","slug":"ducking-bankruptcy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/ducking-bankruptcy\/","title":{"rendered":"Ducking Bankruptcy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dinner with an exec\/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they\u2019ve seen. Class A mostly fine, dec\u2026<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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m. stanfield (@resetbasis) 4.7K likes \u00b7 258 replies<\/font><\/a><\/div>\n
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Dinner with an exec\/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. <\/div>\n
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Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they\u2019ve seen. <\/div>\n
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Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However:<\/div>\n
– credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years. <\/div>\n
– more people are paying rent via credit card. <\/div>\n
– average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago<\/div>\n
– class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month. <\/div>\n
– starting to see these renters move down a tier <\/div>\n
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Class B:<\/div>\n
– simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous. <\/div>\n
– fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50%<\/div>\n
– considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets.<\/div>\n
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Class C:<\/div>\n
– looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren\u2019t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up<\/div>\n
– more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades<\/div>\n
– tenants aren\u2019t paying rent because they simply don\u2019t have it <\/div>\n
– wage growth has not kept up <\/div>\n
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Lenders:<\/div>\n
– some major investment funds, household names, haven\u2019t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won\u2019t foreclose because \u201cX is a big client.\u201d Mexican standoff.<\/div>\n
– a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses. <\/div>\n
– number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall.<\/div>\n
– data providers know it\u2019s bad, but they\u2019re paid to sell optimism to owners\/lenders. So every forecast is \u201cit will probably get a little better next year maybe\u201d and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over. <\/div>\n
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I asked \u201chow do you think this ends?\u201d<\/div>\n
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\u201cNot sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there\u2019s a chance it\u2019s just a decade of tolerable pain. I\u2019m praying for that.\u201d\"image0.jpeg\"\"image1.jpeg\"\"image2.jpeg\"\"image3.jpeg\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dinner with an exec\/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they\u2019ve seen. Class A mostly fine, dec\u2026 m. stanfield (@resetbasis) 4.7K likes \u00b7 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":39385,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39384","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39384"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39384\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39384"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39384"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.duck9.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39384"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}