By Larry Chiang
Car loan delinquency is a Bellweather statistic of USA consumer health
30 days late is a two
60 days late is a three
Charge offs are credit code 9
Credit code “3” are wayyyyyy up
And auto loan delinquency rates that once raised alarms now look tame by today’s standards:
As of 2025, the average 60+ day delinquency rate is topping 6%—up 45 bps YoY.
But subprime borrower performance has been weakening for a while as financial strain ramps up.
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And while relief programs provided some help during COVID, once they disappeared, missed payments surged again and haven’t come back down.
Bottom line: Delinquencies are up. Prices might be next. And subprime borrowers don’t have the cushion.
(Below is a heat map showing historical subprime delinquency data)
(Data/visual source: Fitch Ratings / Capital markets analyst Joe Cecala)
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