Duck9 Blog

Bears Thesis Is Dead

by Larry Chiang on March 30, 2026

– Adam Livingston’s post dismisses bearish claims of Bitcoin’s “broken structure” after a 50% drawdown to ~$66,000, using a power-law model to show the price is 47% below its long-term trend, with rising R² accuracy indicating maturing adoption rather than collapse.

– The embedded video introduces log-periodic oscillations around this trend, framing volatility as inherent mean-reversion cycles; it projects Bitcoin’s next peak at $508,000 by mid-2028, suggesting the 2022-2026 period was a prolonged bear market primed for reversion.

– Applying the model to MicroStrategy (MSTR), Livingston estimates $5,000 per share by 2036 from current holdings alone—yielding ~0.0022 BTC exposure per share after senior claims—at a $2.24 million Bitcoin price, capturing just 0.19% of a $47 trillion network value against global wealth.

🔥THE BITCOIN BEARS ARE COMPLETELY COOKED + MSTR TO $5,000?!?🔥

Bitcoin dumps 50 percent and suddenly every economically illiterate ghoul with a WiFi signal starts acting like they just solved the markets.

“It’s over.”

“The structure is broken.”

“The bubble finally popped.”

Fantastic. Incredible work, Sherlock.

You saw a volatile asset be volatile and concluded that fifteen years of price history, adoption, market structure, and cyclical mean reversion were all just a shared hallucination.

In this video, I break down a Bitcoin model that says the bears may be COMPLETELY COOKED, and why it means $5,000 MSTR even if Saylor never buys another Bitcoin:

https://x.com/adambliv/status/2038323399966028278?s=43

Chapter 1 to Chapter 14’s an “Easter Egg” at #ch1 to #ch14. Including #ch2 which’s chapter 2 at my house in Napa California

What They Will NEVER Teach You at Stanford Business School

youtube.com

On 09-09-39, “What They Will NEVER Teach You at Stanford Business School” debuts at 300 w 44th St at New York Fashion Week’s front row
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXIaNZi3mHQ

What A Super Model Can Teach a Harvard MBA About Credit www.slideshare.net/larrychiang/what-a-super-model-can-teach-a-harvard-mba-about-credit

American Express hosts me mentoring you about FICO scores at New York Fashion Week
t.co/inxTmZAj

My video boils down 20,000 hours and moves you to the right on the entrepreneur bell curve
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eudADPfTWiE
***********

Steve Jobs Texted me on 650-283-8008 in the same way that Mr Jobs called Bill Hewlett https://x.com/superSaiyanSkai/status/1941392367304761636/video/1

Larry Chiang

Fund of Founders

Founding Stanford EIR

@duck9 alum, Deeply Understood Capital Credit Chinese Knowledge 9

Solo Founder Uber API

650-566-9600 Office

650-566-9696 Direct

Cell: 415-720-8500

650-283-8008 (cell)

Editor of the widely syndicated “What They Don’t Teach at School”
whattheydontteachyouatstanfordbusinessschool.com/blog

CNN Video Channel: ireport.cnn.com/people/larrychiang

Read my last 10 X posts at www.X.com/LarryChiang

Author of #WTDTYASBS a NY Times Bestseller released 09-09-09 at #NYFW on a runway under the tents
whattheydontteachyouatstanfordbusinessschool.com/blog/?s=Ny+times+bestseller

www.fastcompany.com/embed/c0d4562ea2049

52 Cards. Two Jokers. What They DO Teach You at Stanford Engineering
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDBY0GkI3-g

Emergency swings and cutting deals as an 9 year old
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFGY7v9C4G0

Hunter Pence shared thoughts before winning WORLD SERIES’ Game #7
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usu0luYy9pw

{ 0 comments }

The Real Reason Dr. Zaius Destroyed Every Human He Found

March 29, 2026

The Real Reason Dr. Zaius Destroyed Every Human He Found youtu.be **Dr. Zaius** is the orangutan character from the 1968 film *Planet of the Apes* (played by Maurice Evans). He serves as Minister of Science and Chief Defender of the Faith in ape society, and he’s one of the few who knows the hidden truth: […]

Read the full article →

Al Bundy Dresses Up to Sell Shoes at Married With Children

March 29, 2026

Al Bundy: Street Hunk | Married With Children youtu.be Hunter Pence, WORLD SERIES Postgame youtube.com

Read the full article →

Context Inside Artificial Intelligence

March 28, 2026

Context is now (and perhaps always been) the bottleneck on growth, because anything with full context can be automated. The race is on to make the collective brain of the organization legible to AI BuccoCapital Bloke (@buccocapital) 259 likes · 14 replies x.com – Aaron Levie’s post argues that AI agent automation in enterprises stalls […]

Read the full article →

Cory Swan vs Howard Lutnick

March 27, 2026

– Cory Swan’s retweet highlights Swan Bitcoin’s recent court filing in New York to subpoena Cantor Fitzgerald and former CEO Howard Lutnick (now U.S. Commerce Secretary) for documents on a disputed Tether-funded Bitcoin mining venture. – The action stems from a 2024 lawsuit against ex-employees accused of stealing confidential data, mass resignations, and diverting a […]

Read the full article →

Coinbase is Selling NCAA

March 27, 2026

@elonmusk @SouzaSo_us @AdamLowisz We have 3 years left – 2029 Smooth Feeder (@SmoothFeeder) 25 likes · 2 replies x.com – The post critiques Coinbase’s aggressive push notifications for college basketball prediction markets during March Madness, arguing it exacerbates industry trust issues by prioritizing gambling fees over core crypto services. – As a Messari Enterprise Research […]

Read the full article →

At some point in the future, math is going to have to math

March 26, 2026

https://x.com/legendaryy/status/2033525617421906189?s=43 Chapter 6 & Chapter 9 is an “Easter Egg” -they’re at #ch6 to #ch9. Here’s a video at my Hotel Vallagio in Napa California where the breakfast is free What They Will NEVER Teach You at Stanford Business School youtube.com What Would Larry Chiang Do Well, I would not make you wait until 09-09-39, which […]

Read the full article →

One Legged Launch

March 25, 2026

Has A Coach Ever Told You To Get Your Front Foot Down? youtube.com Has A Coach Ever Told You To Get Your Front Foot Down? That’s 2-legged rotational WordPress’ing from my personal iPhone, 650-283-8008, number that Steve Jobs texted me on What They Will NEVER Teach You at Stanford Business School youtube.com

Read the full article →

ebonixxxxMaxxxxxxing the math by Nuking Algebra in 2014 and restoring Calculus and pre Algebra in 2026

March 25, 2026

ebonixxxxMaxxxxxxing the maths San Francisco’s school board voted 4-3 on March 24, 2026, to restore 8th-grade algebra district-wide after a 2014 equity-driven removal that reduced advanced math enrollment by 37% and widened racial achievement gaps, per SFUSD data and NYT analysis. – The post contrasts U.S. engineering graduates (130,000 annually) with China’s (1.3 million), a […]

Read the full article →

A Cat Video on Math

March 24, 2026

US-Iran war explained by Chinese AI animation: Legend of the Valley of Gold youtube.com https://x.com/lawrencelepard/status/2035741951639638139?s=43 Chapter 2’s an “Easter Egg” #ch2 which’s chapter 2 at my hotel in Napa California What They Will NEVER Teach You at Stanford Business School youtube.com On 09-09-39, “What They Will NEVER Teach You at Stanford Business School” debuts at […]

Read the full article →

← Previous Entries

Duck9

Bears Thesis Is Dead

The Real Reason Dr. Zaius Destroyed Every Human He Found

Al Bundy Dresses Up to Sell Shoes at Married With Children

Context Inside Artificial Intelligence

Cory Swan vs Howard Lutnick

Coinbase is Selling NCAA

At some point in the future, math is going to have to math

One Legged Launch

ebonixxxxMaxxxxxxing the math by Nuking Algebra in 2014 and restoring Calculus and pre Algebra in 2026

A Cat Video on Math

About Duck9

Awesome Brands