Carvana’s CarMax and Other Subprime Loan Pools Exhibit Spiked 30+ Day Delinquencies

– CarMax and Carvana’s 2024 loan pools exhibit 30+ day delinquencies at 4.5% and higher, 2-3 times prime benchmarks despite average borrower FICO scores of 714 and 695, signaling affordability strains beyond credit quality.

– Lenders extend payments to curb repossessions, holding repo rates below 0.2% while modifications rise to 0.5%, delaying vehicle returns and constricting used car wholesale supply amid low off-lease volumes.

– Tightened supply intensifies auction competition, compelling dealers to adopt direct sourcing strategies like instant offers and rapid reconditioning to sustain inventory and margins.

CarMax and Carvana’s loan troubles are reshaping the used car market:

Both groups’ 2024 loan pools are running hot, posting delinquencies 2–3x higher than prime auto benchmarks.

And that’s unusual, because their average borrower scores (CarMax ~714, Carvana ~695) should be tracking much closer to prime.

Instead, delinquencies are climbing fast.

CarMax’s pool is already at 4.5% 30-day delinquencies, while Carvana’s heavier subprime mix is deteriorating even faster.

Repos, though, remain low.

Because lenders are increasingly stacking on payment extensions to keep loans alive, which means fewer cars cycling back into the lanes.

Add in light off-lease volume and slower trade-ins, and wholesale supply is tightening just as competition at auction heats up.

My take: Auctions are a great supplement, but they should not be your sole lifeline. Dealers who own their sourcing (instant offers, trade locks, recon to market in 72 hours) are better suited to maintain control right now.

Read the full Market Pulse, together with @Experian_Auto : carguymedia.com/4nq5YbY

(Data source: Finsight Auto ABS Loan Level Data / Fitch Ratings Auto ABS Data for Prime Index)

Car Dealership Guy

⁦‪@GuyDealership‬⁩

CarMax and Carvana’s loan troubles are reshaping the used car market:

Both groups’ 2024 loan pools are running hot, posting delinquencies 2–3x higher than prime auto benchmarks.

And that’s unusual, because their average borrower scores (CarMax ~714, Carvana ~695) should be

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Carvana’s CarMax and Other Subprime Loan Pools Exhibit Spiked 30+ Day Delinquencies

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