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The next phase of the global trade war will not be fought between Washington and Beijing.
It will be fought between Brussels and Beijing.
And it is already more dangerous than the one everyone is watching.
China cannot sell enough at home. Years of overinvestment, weak domestic consumption, and structural imbalances have left it with one pressure valve: exports.
Europe cannot absorb the overflow. Its own economic fragility has forced policymakers to choose between staying open and protecting their own workers, their own industries, their own voters.
That choice is no longer a debate. It is a decision.
And what makes this collision more volatile than a standard trade dispute is that neither side can back down easily. China sees exports as survival. Europe increasingly sees Chinese imports as a threat to its own survival.
When both sides believe they are defending themselves, escalation is no longer a risk. It is a logic.
The technical language will follow. Anti-dumping probes. Countervailing duties. Local content rules. Strategic sector carve-outs. Trusted partner frameworks.
But underneath all of it is a simpler reality: one economy with too much to sell and nowhere left to send it, and another economy that has finally decided it will not be the destination.
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