Dylan LeClair’s Pattern Recognition

Hmmm, some interesting flow in $BNB futures:

– Perpetual futures open interest is seeing new highs as funding rates have gone deeply negative (-200% APR for next funding period) (Chart #1) – looks as if someone is getting ahead of some bad news flow. 

– The last time BNB denominated open interest was this high was December 2020, when price was $30, and funding was extremely positive (Chart #2). In USD terms OI was only ~$50m then, compared to $400m now.

– Interestingly the open interest is not entirely just on Binance any longer. Take a look at BNB open interest NOT on Binance, up only, and surpassing $150 million. Open interest on other platforms is the highest it’s ever been in both relative terms and absolute terms. (Chart #3). It’s a market that’s no longer completely driven on Binance – very notable in my opinion. 

– Lastly, take a look at funding rates on Binance for large cap cryptos… There is an outlier. Traders are getting short BNB and don’t seem to care about the high cost of funding to do so… (Image #4)

Personal hunch is that DoJ charges arrive shortly and people in the know are positioning accordingly, let’s see.