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In The Media

Global Bond Market

by Larry Chiang on July 10, 2026


12 sentences WordPress’d from my personal iPhone. Send text to 650-283-8008, a number that Steve Jobs texted Larry Chiang on

THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET IS BREAKING DOWN
And it’s a sign of what’s about to come.
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Starting with the US, both 20Y and 30Y bond yields are back above 5%, the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
On top of that, the Fed is still hawkish, which could push upward pressure on bond yields.
High bond yields means the borrowing will become costly, which will harm businesses and reduce their profitability.
Low profitability leads to mass layoffs, which leads to less spending, and the economy falls into recession.
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But the US is not the only one.
Japanese bond yields are already at 30-year highs, while their GDP forecast is very low.
Adding a weakening yen and record-low birth rate, the economy looks on the verge of a recession.
The EU is no different.
UK 10Y bond yield is around 4.9%, the same level as the 2008 recession.
France 10Y bond yield is at 3.86%, its highest level in 17 years.
Germany 10Y bond yield is above 3%, the levels last seen in 2011.
The same is happening with Italy, Portugal, Spain, etc., which are witnessing a massive run in their bond yields.
And all this is signaling just one thing.
The global economy is currently a deck of cards, and it’s about to fall.

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